As 2023 has come to an end, we're facing 2024 the"super election year". Over 70 countries, more than 50% of the world's population, will hold elections. In November 2024, all eyes will turn to America in the unfolding landscape of global politics.
Donald Trump is running for president again, despite being charged with federal crimes. He will likely face Joe Biden, again. If Trump is picked as the Republican candidate, the possibility of Trump's comeback carries weighty implications for democracies across the globe.
And Trump’s return is not just a possibility — he’s currently the most popular candidate by a long shot.
The dynamics of international diplomacy, the rise of populist movements, the role of media, and the scrutiny of democratic institutions collectively shape a narrative that extends beyond borders.
Trump ahead in National Polls
Biden will likely be the Democratic candidate. Trump, on the other hand, has several rivals but is ahead in the national polls now.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
Shift in Geopolitics
As US foreign policy choices shape world politics, the potential return of Donald Trump is not merely a domestic affair; it has far-reaching implications for the global order and world politics, such as the prospect for peace in Ukraine, the Middle East, and beyond. A potential return to Trump's "America First" policies could trigger a shift in alliances, affecting democratic institutions and global governance.
The role of democracy itself is at stake − both within and beyond America’s borders.
Donald Trump’s threat to withdraw the US from Nato, if re-elected, risks further instability across Europe.
Populist Resurgence
A re-election of Trump may spur populist movements globally. Democratic nations could witness a resurgence in far-right, nationalist, populist rhetoric. In the Netherlands, the far-right just won the general elections with the ‘Dutch Trump’ at the helm. More of these results may follow with Trump’s election.
Media and Information Landscape
Trump's unique relationship with the media may encourage disinformation globally. Trump spent much of his time in office using the bully pulpit of the presidency to ridicule the press, calling them names and “the enemy of the people”. His re-election will amplify concerns about media integrity and legitimacy, and the freedom of the press.
Scrutiny on Democratic Institutions
Most pressingly, a return Trump could amplify existing concerns about the strength of democratic institutions in America, in Europe, and everywhere across the globe.
The checks and balances of democracy will once again be put into question.
And the resilience of democratic norms will be challenged.
Check this space for more information and findings on the upcoming elections and "Democracy's Super Bowl".
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